What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

The New Mexico 2nd District was a pure toss-up in our model: Both Yvette Herrell (the Republican) and Xochitl Torres Small (the Democrat) had a 1 in 2 chance. With 62 percent reporting, that “prediction” has proven true: Herrell leads just 51 percent to 49 percent.

We’re starting to get some returns in from California, but be wary. It takes several days to collect mail ballots there, and the final returns don’t always match what’s reported initially on election night.

I’m looking at Georgia’s 7th District, where Republican incumbent Rob Woodall is currently trailing Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux. Democratic outside groups put about $1 million into boosting Bourdeaux, while GOP groups spent nothing to help Woodall.