What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms
Our final update to the “Deluxe” model of the House forecast ends in a fun coincidence — the district most likely to tip the House toward either party is Michigan’s 8th, Nate’s home district!
Chance that each House race is the one that decides control
Top 30 races most likely to give a party its 218th U.S. House seat (and therefore majority control), according to the final “Deluxe” version of FiveThirtyEight’s forecast
| Tipping point chance | ||
|---|---|---|
| Michigan 8th | 2.2% | |
| New York 19th | 2.2 | |
| Illinois 14th | 2.2 | |
| Utah 4th | 2.2 | |
| New Jersey 3rd | 2.2 | |
| Iowa 3rd | 2.1 | |
| California 45th | 2.0 | |
| California 10th | 2.0 | |
| Illinois 6th | 2.0 | |
| New Jersey 7th | 2.0 | |
| Washington 8th | 2.0 | |
| California 48th | 1.9 | |
| North Carolina 9th | 1.9 | |
| New York 22nd | 1.9 | |
| Kansas 2nd | 1.9 | |
| Minnesota 1st | 1.9 | |
| Maine 2nd | 1.9 | |
| Virginia 7th | 1.9 | |
| New Mexico 2nd | 1.8 | |
| Michigan 11th | 1.7 | |
| Minnesota 3rd | 1.7 | |
| Minnesota 2nd | 1.7 | |
| California 25th | 1.6 | |
| Florida 26th | 1.6 | |
| California 39th | 1.6 | |
| Colorado 6th | 1.5 | |
| Kansas 3rd | 1.5 | |
| Texas 32nd | 1.5 | |
| Virginia 10th | 1.5 | |
| Nevada 3rd | 1.5 | |
A poignant voting sticker from Kiran O’Farrell: “Pittsburgh has a unique one to honor the victims of the Tree of Life shooting, which I’m proud to wear today.”
As I wrote last month, when the same party controls both a state’s legislature and governor’s office, it can unlock valuable policy achievements like right-to-work laws and abortion restrictions on the right or a higher minimum wage and gun-control legislation on the left. Republicans currently have full control of 26 state governments, and Democrats have eight. But tonight’s state-legislative elections could sway the balance of power. Here’s some of what I’ll be watching:
- Republicans could seize total control of Alaska government if they win the state House and governor’s office.
- Democrats could flip either the Arizona state Senate or state House to break up the current Republican monopoly in Phoenix.
- Democrats could gain full control of state government in Colorado by flipping the state Senate while holding onto the state House and governor’s mansion.
- Republicans have a shot at a trifecta in Connecticut: picking up the state Senate, the state House and the open governor’s seat.
- Total Republican control over Florida would be broken if Democrats win the governorship and/or the state Senate. The state House is probably safe for the GOP, however.
- Democrats have a shot at the Iowa state House and maybe the state Senate. Winning either or the governorship would end total Republican control.
- With a really good night, Democrats could capture all three levers of government in Michigan.
- Either party could assume total control of government in Minnesota. Republicans would need to win the open gubernatorial race, Democrats would need to flip the state House; control of the state Senate hinges on a single special election in Trump country.
- The state Senate and state House in New Hampshire look likely to go blue. If that happens, the GOP would be robbed of their current trifecta in the Granite State.
- Democrats could gain full control of New York by flipping the state Senate.
- Republicans currently dominate Wisconsin government, but Democrats believe they can flip the state Senate and the governor’s office.
In addition, winning the governorship could give Democrats total control of Illinois, Nevada and New Mexico. And if Democrats win the governor’s chair in Georgia, Kansas, Ohio or Oklahoma, they would break up Republican trifectas. Republicans could do the same to Democratic trifectas in Oregon and Rhode Island.