What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

As I wrote last month, when the same party controls both a state’s legislature and governor’s office, it can unlock valuable policy achievements like right-to-work laws and abortion restrictions on the right or a higher minimum wage and gun-control legislation on the left. Republicans currently have full control of 26 state governments, and Democrats have eight. But tonight’s state-legislative elections could sway the balance of power. Here’s some of what I’ll be watching:

• Republicans could seize total control of Alaska government if they win the state House and governor’s office.
• Democrats could flip either the Arizona state Senate or state House to break up the current Republican monopoly in Phoenix.
• Democrats could gain full control of state government in Colorado by flipping the state Senate while holding onto the state House and governor’s mansion.
• Republicans have a shot at a trifecta in Connecticut: picking up the state Senate, the state House and the open governor’s seat.
• Total Republican control over Florida would be broken if Democrats win the governorship and/or the state Senate. The state House is probably safe for the GOP, however.
• Democrats have a shot at the Iowa state House and maybe the state Senate. Winning either or the governorship would end total Republican control.
• With a really good night, Democrats could capture all three levers of government in Michigan.
• Either party could assume total control of government in Minnesota. Republicans would need to win the open gubernatorial race, Democrats would need to flip the state House; control of the state Senate hinges on a single special election in Trump country.
• The state Senate and state House in New Hampshire look likely to go blue. If that happens, the GOP would be robbed of their current trifecta in the Granite State.
• Democrats could gain full control of New York by flipping the state Senate.
• Republicans currently dominate Wisconsin government, but Democrats believe they can flip the state Senate and the governor’s office.

In addition, winning the governorship could give Democrats total control of Illinois, Nevada and New Mexico. And if Democrats win the governor’s chair in Georgia, Kansas, Ohio or Oklahoma, they would break up Republican trifectas. Republicans could do the same to Democratic trifectas in Oregon and Rhode Island.

Earlier, Christie was talking about the sort of aesthetic difference of voting at a community polling site. I just ran across this interesting study of Arizona’s 2000 election results that found that where you vote can have an impact on how you vote. Like, even controlling for political views and demographics, people were more likely to vote to raise taxes to fund education if their polling place was in a school. Environment matters!

In terms of identity and politics, even as the parties have these high-profile shifts, that’s not totally where the voters are. Remember, about 37 percent of Trump’s voters in 2016 were NOT whites without degrees (meaning they were either minorities or whites with college degrees.) About 60 percent of Clinton’s supporters were white, so the Democrats are not a party dominated by blacks and Latinos. Democrats are likely to make gains in the Midwest in 2018 in part because there are a lot of whites without degrees in the Midwest who are either Democrats or who swing between the two parties.