What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

Since we have two of our science experts here, I am curious: We heard in the last two months that global warming is coming for us all, whether we like it or not. (Though it’s coming for some of us more than others.) Is there any evidence that voters vote based on the environment?

Electoral maps are used for about a decade before they are scrapped and redrawn by (in most cases) state legislatures. The current batch of maps is up for a redo in 2021, after the 2020 census. At least one-eighth of the state legislators elected tonight (generally state senators with longer terms) will still be in office when it’s time to vote on new maps, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Twenty-nine of the 36 governors elected tonight will have veto power over the maps.

That is a big deal. Part of the reason the past seven years have been so electorally rosy for Republicans is that they controlled many more state governments than Democrats did in 2011, when electoral maps were redrawn. As a result, Republicans could gerrymander the maps in their favor.

In most states, the key to determining whether a party will have free rein to gerrymander is whether that party controls the two legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion — a trifecta of electoral power. My colleague Nathaniel Rakich did a great job of laying out where trifectas could be gained or lost tonight.

Some key states that are at risk of losing Republican-favored trifectas: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Oklahoma. If Democrats break those trifectas by winning gubernatorial elections, they’ll be able to prevent Republicans from gerrymandering there in 2021. (In Ohio, changes to the redistricting process that were approved by voters this year could also prevent that. As could changes that are on the ballot in Michigan today.) In states such as Maine, Illinois, Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats could gain trifectas tonight, putting themselves on the path to gerrymander in 2021 if they can keep control through the next election.

It’s not just candidates on the ballot today. As I wrote on Saturday, there are at least 150 ballot measures at stake, too. Here are some of the most interesting:

• Amendment 4 in Florida would restore the right to vote to 1.5 million felons — more than 10 percent of the state’s voting-age population — including 21 percent of the state’s adult black population. According to an analysis by The New York Times/Upshot, Amendment 4 could create about 300,000 new voters, and many of them are likely to be Democrats. Two recent polls have shown Amendment 4 at exactly the 60 percent support it needs to pass.
• Three states will vote on expanding access to voting. Michigan’s Proposal 3 would enact automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, the ability to vote absentee without an excuse and straight-ticket voting. Nevada is also voting on automatic voter registration with Question 5, and Question 2 in Maryland would give residents the ability to register to vote on Election Day.
• Proposal 1 in Michigan and Measure 3 in North Dakota would legalize recreational marijuana.
• Washington’s Initiative 1631 would levy the first state-level carbon tax in the country.
• Three red states will vote on expanding Medicaid: Idaho with Proposition 2, Nebraska with Initiative 427 and Utah with Proposition 3. Montana’s Initiative 185 would also make the state’s about-to-expire Medicaid expansion permanent.