What Went Down In The 2018 Midterms

Our final update to the Senate forecast predicts an average gain of 0.5 seats for Republicans and gives the GOP a 5-in-6 (82 percent) chance of controlling the Senate, according to our “Deluxe” model.

Our final Election Update for the Senate lays out 13 races that we’ve got our eyes on.

Our final update to the House forecast predicts an average gain of 36 seats for Democrats and gives them a 6-in-7 (85.8 percent) chance of controlling the House, according to our “Deluxe” model.

Nate’s final Election Update explains how to think about the uncertainty around those numbers.

We’ve now frozen our House, Senate and Governor forecasts. We’ll be posting the final looks at each here (they’re available on their solo pages as well, of course). First up: which party will govern more Americans? According to our “Deluxe” model, if each state goes to our expected winner, Democrats will govern 64.4 percent of the population.

Read our final gubernatorial Election Update for eight questions that Tuesday will answer.