In the nine New Jersey counties that have reported at least 75 percent of their results, Murphy is outperforming Clinton's margin by an average of 3 points, although with a lot of variation from county to county. Clinton won the state by 14 points, so that would project a margin of victory in the high teens -- or perhaps the low 20s since Murphy has been doing especially well relative to Clinton in the most populous counties so far.
By Nate Silver
