What Went Down On Election Night 2017

2020 is a census year, and that means that from now until then, there is an added layer of meaning to some state elections: Which party will be in control of redistricting in 2021? States redraw their congressional and state legislative districts every 10 years, after the census is conducted. In most states, the state legislature draws the maps, and the governor approves them. Virginia’s district maps are widely considered to be gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. According to the efficiency gap measure (which, yes, has flaws), both its congressional and state legislative maps show a bias. We don’t know yet which party will be in control of Virginia’s General Assembly after the 2020 election, but after tonight, we do know that the state will have a Democratic governor. At the very least, Gov. Northam will be able to veto district maps that disadvantage Democrats. If Democrats control the General Assembly after 2020, they might be able to gerrymander in their own favor.

Responding to Micah’s question about whether Democrats are favorites to win the House in 2018: I’d be a little more cautious. As I recall, Democrats were running about 8 percentage points ahead of their 2016 numbers in special elections earlier this year. We have yet to see the final results tonight, but Northam, while winning comfortably, only seems to be about 5 points ahead of Clinton last year. Dems will likely need a larger surge than that to take the House.

Chad, if we’re talking about general elections, I guess that’s about right. Roy Moore, who was Trumping before Trumping was a glimmer in Trump’s eye (at least in terms of style), is really the ideal Breitbart shoot-from-the-hip candidate. I suppose we have a couple of primaries, though, that will be interesting to watch — I still think that Arizona’s Republican Senate primary will tell us a lot about how a far-right candidate plays against a more mainstream tea party one.