Updated 3:52 AM | Nov. 9, 20162016 Election NightLive coverage and resultsBy FiveThirtyEightFiled under 2016 Election Forecast Bot 10:00 pm Trump wins Montana. Our model now gives him a 27 percent chance of winning the election. × The best of FiveThirtyEight, delivered to you. Thanks for subscribing!You should receive a confirmation in your inbox shortly. Error: {{data}}. Email Address Morning Distribution (Daily) Your daily briefing from FiveThirtyEight. Top Stories Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top stories last week. Politics Newsletter (Weekly) FiveThirtyEight’s top politics stories last week. Popular Stories Why Trump Is Polling Much Better Among Very Conservative Primary Voters Than In 2016 Are Black And Hispanic Americans Abandoning Biden? Over 100 Anti-LGBTQ+ Laws Passed In The Last Five Years — Half Of Them This Year