FiveThirtyEight
Andrew Flowers

Markets are reacting very negatively as Trump is exceeding expectations in the electoral map tonight. One thing to watch is the Mexican peso. As Trump’s chances of winning improve — and thus the potential for negative trade and immigration policies relating to Mexico rises — markets would adjust by devaluing the peso and showing declines in Mexican stock markets. Sure enough, the Mexican peso has depreciated sharply since 8 p.m. eastern time. (Or, in other words, the Mexican peso-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen.)

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