2016 Election Night

The Upshot’s calculator has Clinton projected to eventually win the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points — right in line with where national polls had the race. And yet, they show her winning only 290 or so electoral votes, which obviously means that Trump has a decent shot to win the Electoral College. That potentially seems to validate our finding that Clinton was in a worse position in the Electoral College than the popular vote, since her coalition is not concentrated in swing states.