A Virginia Replay?
Election watchers right now are feeling a sense of déjà vu — in the 2014 Virginia Senate race and again right now, Virginia was expected to go easily Democratic, but the early returns are instead suggesting a tight race. In fact, Trump leads the state by just over 3 percentage points. From our look at the data, Clinton is running even with Obama except in the rural, southwestern part of the state, where Trump is outperforming Romney. Still, while 69 percent of precincts are in, just 54 percent of the 2012 major-party vote is in. We suspect that Clinton has a lot of outstanding votes in Virginia Beach and the Norther Virginia suburbs, but it isn’t crazy to think that Virginia could be the crack in the Clinton firewall.