FiveThirtyEight
Ben Casselman

Swing-State Economics: Pennsylvania

Unemployment rate (September): 5.7 percent (U.S.: 5 percent) Median income (2015): $55,702 (U.S.: $55,775) Poverty rate (2015): 13.2 percent (U.S.: 14.7 percent) College share (2015): 29.7 percent (U.S.: 30.6 percent) Pennsylvania wasn’t hit as hard by the recession as states such as Arizona, Florida and Michigan — its unemployment rate never reached 9 percent in the recession — and it saw a relatively strong recovery. More recently, however, that progress has stalled; the state’s unemployment rate has risen by a full percentage point since the end of last year and is now solidly above the national mark. Really, though, it is a mistake to think about Pennsylvania as one state. Philadelphia and its suburbs are solidly part of the Northeastern corridor; Chester County, west of Philadelphia, is one of the richest counties in the country. But western Pennsylvania has never fully recovered from the decline of the steel industry; even Pittsburgh, which has experienced a revival in recent years, is still losing population.

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