A month ago, we took a look at where the two candidates had the most “upside” in this election, relative to 2012. Polls show that Trump will likely outperform Romney among non-college-educated whites, and Clinton will outperform Obama among college-educated whites and all non-whites. We hypothesized a scenario where:
One in five non-college-educated whites who went for Obama in 2012 would switch their vote to Trump.
One in five college-educated whites and non-whites who went for Romney in 2012 would switch their vote to Clinton.
Here’s how 2016 would look in this “Vote Swap” scenario:
In our final general election polls-only forecast, this outcome looks like a very real possibility. We give Trump a 70 percent chance in Iowa and a 65 percent chance in Ohio. Hillary is a narrow favorite in North Carolina at 56 percent. Every other state is projected to vote the same way it did in 2012 and Maine’s second district is a nail-biter — we put Clinton at 51 percent.
