What Might We Learn About Turnout From 2016?
By now, there have been numerous reports of long lines and crowded polling places, and the possibility of high Latino turnout in Nevada and Florida. If it turns out to be true that this is a high-turnout election, what will that tell us? Political science has turned up a great deal of evidence to help us understand why some individuals vote and others don’t, but understanding the variation from election to election is more complicated. Polarization seems to be good for turnout, as more people have strong preferences about who wins. And that may be primarily what’s at work this year.
But there may be something different going on, too. If some voters went to the polls because of a sense of existential threat, that might be a qualitatively different thing from party polarization. It might also shed light on the question of whether negative campaigns depress turnout – or perhaps help to raise it? With more data, we may also be able to learn more about the potential for “ground game” to get out new and non-habitual voters.