2016 Election Night

One thing I’ve been thinking about here is where the Democratic Party goes next. Three of the last four Congressional elections (2010, 2014 and 2016) were bad for the Democrats, leading to a thin bench. President Obama served out his two terms. The Clinton dynasty is over. But the most obvious alternatives to Clinton — Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden — are also pretty old. It seems that all of the energy in the party is on the left, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the 2020 nominee were someone from the Sanders wing of the party. But who is that candidate? I don’t know. There are a lot of opportunities for talented, up-and-coming, left-wing politicians, beginning with the 2018 midterms.

I wrote this morning about this election’s status as the first since a Supreme Court decision struck down portions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, prompting states to close hundreds of polling places. Among the states affected were three crucial states won by Trump: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

There’s been an ongoing debate about the sources of Trump support, and it will only heat up after tonight’s stunning result. But I wanted to offer a few quick preliminary thoughts. First, it’s critical to differentiate why candidates win primaries and why they win general elections. And second, in re-reading explanations from Trump’s primary supporters about why they backed him, one thing that stands out to me is their anger at the political system, a point Lynn Vavreck made as well. Any politician who wins a primary is going to gain support for lots of reasons. But as we are figuring out the reasons for Trump’s unexpected success, don’t discount the number of Republicans who saw politics as deeply broken — and saw a businessman and outsider as an answer.