2016 Election Night

The forecast you see on the right-hand rail is based only on called states. But we did build in a Plan B in the event of an election like tonight: We can override our initial forecast by declaring a state “too close to call” and changing the model’s forecast. We’re doing that in Michigan right now, setting the odds at 50/50 there, and we’ll be monitoring other states for whether they need similar treatment.

The presidential race in Michigan is too close to call. Our model now gives Clinton a 55 percent chance of winning; Trump now has a 44 percent chance.

A snapshot of Clinton’s struggles in Ohio in two counties: Obama won Athens County, home of Ohio University, by 35 points in 2012. She won there tonight by just 17 points. And Obama won by 12 points in struggling Ashtabula County — subject of a feature by my colleague Clare Malone — but Trump’s ahead there by 19 points.