2016 Election Night

As a reminder, the odds you see on the right-hand side of this page are based only on pre-election projections and called states. Clinton isn’t really a 73 percent favorite right now — Trump holds narrow leads in many swing states, some of which are likely to be called for him eventually, so her actual odds are probably lower.

With 17 percent of precincts reporting in Michigan, Trump is ahead by more than 4 percentage points statewide. One county’s early returns look particularly surprising: Trump leads Wayne County, which includes Detroit, by about 3 percentage points with 11 percent of precincts reporting. That result would be wildly different from those in the past two presidential elections, when Barack Obama won the county with more than 70 percent of the vote.

With the rising chance of a Trump presidency, there is also a very outside chance of a three-week Democratic majority. How would that come about? On the off-chance that the Democrats can take 50 Senate seats while Trump wins the presidency, the new Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 3. The new president doesn’t take office until Jan. 20, giving the sitting vice president — Democrat Joe Biden — three weeks to cast the tie-breaking Senate vote.