2016 Election Night

With 17 percent of precincts reporting in Michigan, Trump is ahead by more than 4 percentage points statewide. One county’s early returns look particularly surprising: Trump leads Wayne County, which includes Detroit, by about 3 percentage points with 11 percent of precincts reporting. That result would be wildly different from those in the past two presidential elections, when Barack Obama won the county with more than 70 percent of the vote.

With the rising chance of a Trump presidency, there is also a very outside chance of a three-week Democratic majority. How would that come about? On the off-chance that the Democrats can take 50 Senate seats while Trump wins the presidency, the new Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 3. The new president doesn’t take office until Jan. 20, giving the sitting vice president — Democrat Joe Biden — three weeks to cast the tie-breaking Senate vote.

Prices in betting markets implied that chances of a Brexit were just 15 percent heading into that vote, but then the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Heading into today, betting markets gave Trump about a 20 percent chance of winning the presidency. He’s up to 55 percent now.