A lot of the important decisions about elections are made by states, which means there’s a lot of variation. One example of that for those looking at early returns is when polls close. For states in the Eastern time zone, some closed as early as 6 p.m. and a few as late as 9 p.m. Is there a partisan pattern?
It turns out there is — as the chart below shows, when we look at the states that close later, the percentage of votes won by Mitt Romney in 2012 shifts way down. We should be careful about making causal claims — this pattern could be caused by any number of factors. But it’s an interesting pattern nonetheless.
Andrew Flowers
Markets are reacting very negatively as Trump is exceeding expectations in the electoral map tonight. One thing to watch is the Mexican peso. As Trump’s chances of winning improve — and thus the potential for negative trade and immigration policies relating to Mexico rises — markets would adjust by devaluing the peso and showing declines in Mexican stock markets. Sure enough, the Mexican peso has depreciated sharply since 8 p.m. eastern time. (Or, in other words, the Mexican peso-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen.)
Harry Enten
Clinton now leads in Virginia. There is still vote out in Democratic areas. It’s close, but Clinton should win there.
