Markets are reacting very negatively as Trump is exceeding expectations in the electoral map tonight. One thing to watch is the Mexican peso. As Trump’s chances of winning improve — and thus the potential for negative trade and immigration policies relating to Mexico rises — markets would adjust by devaluing the peso and showing declines in Mexican stock markets. Sure enough, the Mexican peso has depreciated sharply since 8 p.m. eastern time. (Or, in other words, the Mexican peso-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen.)
Harry Enten
Clinton now leads in Virginia. There is still vote out in Democratic areas. It’s close, but Clinton should win there.
Nate Silver
Stating the obvious, but it’s very hard for Clinton to win the Electoral College if she loses Michigan along with Ohio, North Carolina and Florida none of which look particularly safe for her right now. Even if she were to hold the rest of her firewall and win Nevada, she’d be stuck at 263 electoral votes and would need to do something unexpected like flip Arizona or Georgia into her column.
