2016 Election Night

As a point of context — one reason people find Trump’s competitive margins across a wide range of swing states so surprising is because exit polls showed Clinton beating her pre-election polls in most states, instead of underperforming them. Remember not to pay too much attention to them next time around.

Prediction markets now have the Electoral College as being almost even money.

Trump wins Louisiana. Our model now gives him a 26 percent chance of winning the election.