2016 Election Night

Prediction markets now have the Electoral College as being almost even money.

Trump wins Louisiana. Our model now gives him a 26 percent chance of winning the election.

Back in late September, our editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, wrote that Clinton was leading in exactly the states she needed to win — and that it wasn’t such a good position to be in. Now we can see why, as her firewall might be crumbling: According to the New York Times’s live forecast, Clinton has below a 60 percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania and Michigan, the two most electoral-vote-rich states in that firewall. She could still win them both; if she doesn’t, she has a much tougher path to winning the election.