Trump wins Louisiana. Our model now gives him a 26 percent chance of winning the election.
Carl Bialik
Clinton’s Firewall Could Be Crumbling
Back in late September, our editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, wrote that Clinton was leading in exactly the states she needed to win — and that it wasn’t such a good position to be in. Now we can see why, as her firewall might be crumbling: According to the New York Times’s live forecast, Clinton has below a 60 percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania and Michigan, the two most electoral-vote-rich states in that firewall. She could still win them both; if she doesn’t, she has a much tougher path to winning the election.
Farai Chideya
Mapping Educational Attainment And Tonight’s Vote
One of the biggest splits in voting behavior this cycle has been between college-educated and non-college-educated white Americans. This map of American Community Survey data on educational attainment uses light orange to show states with lower rates of college degree holders. All of the states with lower rates of college education that have been called so far have gone to Trump: Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Indiana and Kentucky. Nevada, when called, may well buck that trend.
