One of the biggest splits in voting behavior this cycle has been between college-educated and non-college-educated white Americans. This map of American Community Survey data on educational attainment uses light orange to show states with lower rates of college degree holders. All of the states with lower rates of college education that have been called so far have gone to Trump: Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Indiana and Kentucky. Nevada, when called, may well buck that trend.
Nate Silver
Michigan — a state where Trump leads by 3 points based on votes counted so far — is a state that ought to be making Democrats nervous. With lots of white, working-class voters and lots of undecideds, it was underrated as a swing state. Clinton will gain a ton more votes in Detroit, but the Upshot’s projections have the state as very nearly being a tossup now, and it’s probably a bigger risk to Clinton than Pennsylvania.
Harry Enten
Trump’s lead is down to a percentage point in Virginia, with 82 percent of the vote reporting. There are still enough votes outstanding for Clinton to make up this margin. But this doesn’t look like the big lead that Clinton would have wanted. It looks like the race will be close.
