2016 Election Night

Michigan — a state where Trump leads by 3 points based on votes counted so far — is a state that ought to be making Democrats nervous. With lots of white, working-class voters and lots of undecideds, it was underrated as a swing state. Clinton will gain a ton more votes in Detroit, but the Upshot’s projections have the state as very nearly being a tossup now, and it’s probably a bigger risk to Clinton than Pennsylvania.

Trump’s lead is down to a percentage point in Virginia, with 82 percent of the vote reporting. There are still enough votes outstanding for Clinton to make up this margin. But this doesn’t look like the big lead that Clinton would have wanted. It looks like the race will be close.

Republicans win Senate races in Arkansas and Georgia. Our model now gives Republicans a 70 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate.