2016 Election Night

Trump wins Arkansas. Our model now gives him a 26 percent chance of winning the election.

Clinton wins Connecticut. Our model now gives her a 73 percent chance of winning the election.

Some Senate benchmarks:

• In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is outperforming Trump by 6.4 points. The race was called for him earlier tonight.
• In Indiana, Republican Todd Young is underperforming Trump by 10.9 points, but he nevertheless won the state.
• In Missouri, Democrat Jason Kander is outperforming Clinton by 10.1 points.
• In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan is outperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is underperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In Pennsylvania, Democrat Kate McGinty is outperforming Clinton by 1.1 points.