2016 Election Night

Clinton wins Connecticut. Our model now gives her a 73 percent chance of winning the election.

Some Senate benchmarks:

• In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is outperforming Trump by 6.4 points. The race was called for him earlier tonight.
• In Indiana, Republican Todd Young is underperforming Trump by 10.9 points, but he nevertheless won the state.
• In Missouri, Democrat Jason Kander is outperforming Clinton by 10.1 points.
• In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan is outperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is underperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In Pennsylvania, Democrat Kate McGinty is outperforming Clinton by 1.1 points.

Early returns in Michigan are not great for Clinton. Trump is winning by big margins in rural areas and by 2 percentage points overall. The New York Times’s live forecast, which takes into account where the votes are coming from, is now giving Clinton just a 54 percent chance of winning the state and a 58 percent chance of winning the election overall. Before votes were counted, Clinton had a 94 percent chance of winning in Michigan according to the Times and a 79 percent chance according to our forecast.