2016 Election Night

Some Senate benchmarks:

• In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is outperforming Trump by 6.4 points. The race was called for him earlier tonight.
• In Indiana, Republican Todd Young is underperforming Trump by 10.9 points, but he nevertheless won the state.
• In Missouri, Democrat Jason Kander is outperforming Clinton by 10.1 points.
• In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan is outperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is underperforming Clinton by 2.3 points.
• In Pennsylvania, Democrat Kate McGinty is outperforming Clinton by 1.1 points.

Early returns in Michigan are not great for Clinton. Trump is winning by big margins in rural areas and by 2 percentage points overall. The New York Times’s live forecast, which takes into account where the votes are coming from, is now giving Clinton just a 54 percent chance of winning the state and a 58 percent chance of winning the election overall. Before votes were counted, Clinton had a 94 percent chance of winning in Michigan according to the Times and a 79 percent chance according to our forecast.

Our live forecast currently gives Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning the state of Michigan, but there are some interesting things to pull out of the exit polls in that state that speak to the strength of Trump’s candidacy. In 2008 and 2012, rural voters accounted for only about 19 percent of the vote in the state, but according to preliminary exit poll results, they account for 27 percent of the state’s vote. And Trump does well with those rural voters, winning them by about 15 points.