2016 Election Night

Early returns in Michigan are not great for Clinton. Trump is winning by big margins in rural areas and by 2 percentage points overall. The New York Times’s live forecast, which takes into account where the votes are coming from, is now giving Clinton just a 54 percent chance of winning the state and a 58 percent chance of winning the election overall. Before votes were counted, Clinton had a 94 percent chance of winning in Michigan according to the Times and a 79 percent chance according to our forecast.

Our live forecast currently gives Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning the state of Michigan, but there are some interesting things to pull out of the exit polls in that state that speak to the strength of Trump’s candidacy. In 2008 and 2012, rural voters accounted for only about 19 percent of the vote in the state, but according to preliminary exit poll results, they account for 27 percent of the state’s vote. And Trump does well with those rural voters, winning them by about 15 points.

We’ve been talking all night about the historic gender gap that we are likely going to see come out of this election, with women favoring Clinton over Trump in huge numbers — it’s news to no one that Trump has been a controversial figure in no small part because of his comments about women. And yet, we’re seeing some interesting figures coming out of the Florida exit polls — Clinton isn’t doing quite as well with women there as she is in other key states, which might be one reason the race in Florida is so close. According to preliminary exit poll results in Florida, Clinton is winning 51 percent of women, compared with 53 percent in Michigan and New Hampshire; 54 percent in Ohio, Wisconsin, Georgia and Colorado; 55 percent in North Carolina; and 58 percent in Pennsylvania

Clinton has won just 51 percent of women in Florida

STATE	SHARE OF WOMEN WON BY CLINTON
Pennsylvania	58%
North Carolina	55
Ohio	54
Wisconsin	54
Georgia	54
Colorado	54
Michigan	53
New Hampshire	53
Florida	51