Our live forecast currently gives Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning the state of Michigan, but there are some interesting things to pull out of the exit polls in that state that speak to the strength of Trump’s candidacy. In 2008 and 2012, rural voters accounted for only about 19 percent of the vote in the state, but according to preliminary exit poll results, they account for 27 percent of the state’s vote. And Trump does well with those rural voters, winning them by about 15 points.
Clare Malone
We’ve been talking all night about the historic gender gap that we are likely going to see come out of this election, with women favoring Clinton over Trump in huge numbers — it’s news to no one that Trump has been a controversial figure in no small part because of his comments about women.
And yet, we’re seeing some interesting figures coming out of the Florida exit polls — Clinton isn’t doing quite as well with women there as she is in other key states, which might be one reason the race in Florida is so close. According to preliminary exit poll results in Florida, Clinton is winning 51 percent of women, compared with 53 percent in Michigan and New Hampshire; 54 percent in Ohio, Wisconsin, Georgia and Colorado; 55 percent in North Carolina; and 58 percent in Pennsylvania
STATE
SHARE OF WOMEN WON BY CLINTON
Pennsylvania
58%
North Carolina
55
Ohio
54
Wisconsin
54
Georgia
54
Colorado
54
Michigan
53
New Hampshire
53
Florida
51
Clinton has won just 51 percent of women in Florida
Ben Casselman
The latest results seem a bit more favorable for Trump — our live model puts Clinton’s chances at 73 percent, down from 78 percent earlier tonight, and other models have likewise moved back toward Trump. Investors don’t seem to be happy about that — Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal notes that markets have fallen sharply over the past few minutes. That’s consistent with recent research finding that markets would prefer a Clinton victory.
