The latest results seem a bit more favorable for Trump — our live model puts Clinton’s chances at 73 percent, down from 78 percent earlier tonight, and other models have likewise moved back toward Trump. Investors don’t seem to be happy about that — Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal notes that markets have fallen sharply over the past few minutes. That’s consistent with recent research finding that markets would prefer a Clinton victory.
Andrew Flowers
Betting markets have shifted — quickly — in Trump’s favor. His chances of winning have risen to about 25 percent, according to Betfair.
Nate Silver
The Upshot’s calculator has Clinton projected to eventually win the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points — right in line with where national polls had the race. And yet, they show her winning only 290 or so electoral votes, which obviously means that Trump has a decent shot to win the Electoral College. That potentially seems to validate our finding that Clinton was in a worse position in the Electoral College than the popular vote, since her coalition is not concentrated in swing states.
