2016 Election Night

Watch Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Hillsborough Counties in Florida for signs of a Clinton comeback. Especially Broward, which has been slow to count today’s votes; nearly 30 percent of people in the county are African-American. Obama won more than two votes for every one won by Romney there in 2012, and Clinton is leading by an even bigger margin in the southeastern county among votes counted so far this year.

Trump wins Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Texas, Nebraska, Nebraska’s 1st District, and Nebraska’s 3rd District. Our model now gives him a 25 percent chance of winning the election.

Clinton wins New York. Our model now gives her a 73 percent chance of winning the election.