2016 Election Night

Earlier today, we noted that betting markets were increasingly favoring a Clinton win. Her odds have risen further in the last few hours. She now has an 85 percent chance of winning according to an aggregation of two betting markets, Betfair and PredictIt. That is up 2 percentage points over the past four hours.

While exit polls are not the best at measuring the racial composition of the electorate, it does seem that minority turnout is way up in Florida. In the preliminary exit polls, 39 percent of voters were people of color. That compares to just 33 percent in 2012.

International trade has been an enormously contentious issue in this election. Trump has lambasted trade deals like NAFTA — and countries like China — as hurting U.S. workers, particularly in manufacturing. Overall, voters were evenly split on the issue in exit polls: 41 percent responded that trade with other countries “takes away U.S. jobs” while 39 percent said it “creates more U.S. jobs” (another 11 percent were undecided). But Trump and Clinton voters are a mirror image on the issue, with 63 percent of Trump voters saying trade took jobs away while 60 percent of Clinton voters thought it created them.