2016 Election Night

The first exit polls are out. Perhaps the most notable thing about them is the favorable ratings for each candidate. It seems to match the pre-election polls with Clinton and Trump both being seen as unfavorable by a majority of voters, but with Trump being more unlikable than Clinton. Only 44 percent have a favorable rating of Clinton, but an even lower 37 percent have a favorable view of Trump.

The answer, as you might have suspected, lies in human psychology — and is nicely stated in Bethany Albertson and Shana Kushner Gadarian’s recent book, “Anxious Politics.” People don’t like uncertainty and the emotional arousal that comes with it. And one way that we cope with uncertainty is by seeking out new information. Now if our uncertainty is about whether there’s a lion behind a cluster of trees, seeking out new information seems like a winning strategy. But if we’re anxious about an election outcome, the information we’re seeking might not be out there quite yet. As Albertson and Gadarian write, “although individuals seek information in the pursuit of lowering anxiety, the information that they are attracted to may not help them accomplish this goal.” So keep reading …

Trump’s campaign didn’t feature much in the way of specific policy proposals (no, “We’re going to make a great trade deal” doesn’t count). But one area where Trump has offered specifics is tax policy. The only problem: Those specifics kept changing, sometimes in dramatic ways. Alan Cole, an expert at the conservative Tax Foundation, had an entertaining tweetstorm today on the winding path of Trump’s tax plans. The bottom line, though, remained the same throughout: Trump’s plan would cut taxes on the richest Americans while reducing government revenue by trillions of dollars.