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2016 Election Night
Live coverage and results
Why Am I Checking FiveThirtyEight Before the Polls Even Close?
The answer, as you might have suspected, lies in human psychology — and is nicely stated in Bethany Albertson and Shana Kushner Gadarian’s recent book, “Anxious Politics.” People don’t like uncertainty and the emotional arousal that comes with it. And one way that we cope with uncertainty is by seeking out new information. Now if our uncertainty is about whether there’s a lion behind a cluster of trees, seeking out new information seems like a winning strategy. But if we’re anxious about an election outcome, the information we’re seeking might not be out there quite yet. As Albertson and Gadarian write, “although individuals seek information in the pursuit of lowering anxiety, the information that they are attracted to may not help them accomplish this goal.” So keep reading …
Trump’s campaign didn’t feature much in the way of specific policy proposals (no, “We’re going to make a great trade deal” doesn’t count). But one area where Trump has offered specifics is tax policy. The only problem: Those specifics kept changing, sometimes in dramatic ways. Alan Cole, an expert at the conservative Tax Foundation, had an entertaining tweetstorm today on the winding path of Trump’s tax plans. The bottom line, though, remained the same throughout: Trump’s plan would cut taxes on the richest Americans while reducing government revenue by trillions of dollars.
Swing-State Economics: Arizona
Unemployment rate (September): 5.5 percent (U.S.: 5 percent)
Median income (2015): $51,492 (U.S.: $55,775)
Poverty rate (2015): 17.4 percent (U.S.: 14.7 percent)
College share (2015): 27.7 percent (U.S.: 30.6 percent)
The bursting of the housing bubble hit Arizona hard — Phoenix, in particular, experienced a huge run-up in home prices during the boom, and the crash left many homeowners underwater and unable to pay their mortgages. But unlike many states that suffered in the bust, Arizona has seen its housing market rebound strongly during the recovery. Still, the state’s unemployment rate remains above the national mark, and employment has barely returned to its prerecession level.
