A month ago, we took a look at where the two candidates had the most “upside” in this election, relative to 2012. Polls show that Trump will likely outperform Romney among non-college-educated whites, and Clinton will outperform Obama among college-educated whites and all non-whites. We hypothesized a scenario where:
One in five non-college-educated whites who went for Obama in 2012 would switch their vote to Trump.
One in five college-educated whites and non-whites who went for Romney in 2012 would switch their vote to Clinton.
Here’s how 2016 would look in this “Vote Swap” scenario:
In our final general election polls-only forecast, this outcome looks like a very real possibility. We give Trump a 70 percent chance in Iowa and a 65 percent chance in Ohio. Hillary is a narrow favorite in North Carolina at 56 percent. Every other state is projected to vote the same way it did in 2012 and Maine’s second district is a nail-biter — we put Clinton at 51 percent.
Ben Casselman
Voters Head To The Polls With Fatter Wallets
For most of this year, we’ve been saying that the economy is a roughly neutral factor in the election, good enough not to hurt the incumbent party, but not good enough to help much, either. Recent economic data has mostly stuck to that narrative: Hiring has been slower but still solid; inflation is rising but still muted; overall economic growth is picking up but remains disappointing.
The last big economic report before the election, however, brought some news that might put a spring in voters’ steps. Friday’s jobs report showed that hourly earnings rose in October at the fastest pace since 2009. The report probably came too late to sway many voters, but it is the latest sign that wage growth, long a weak spot in the recovery, is finally picking up.
Christianna Silva
The first election results won’t start rolling in for a few hours yet, but Republican control of the House of Representatives looks pretty safe. The GOP holds a 247-to-188 seat majority, and Democrats are likely to gain between five and 20 seats. Here’s a look at the most competitive races and how to interpret results as they come in, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight contributor David Wasserman.
