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2016 Election Night
Live coverage and results
Voters Head To The Polls With Fatter Wallets
For most of this year, we’ve been saying that the economy is a roughly neutral factor in the election, good enough not to hurt the incumbent party, but not good enough to help much, either. Recent economic data has mostly stuck to that narrative: Hiring has been slower but still solid; inflation is rising but still muted; overall economic growth is picking up but remains disappointing.
The last big economic report before the election, however, brought some news that might put a spring in voters’ steps. Friday’s jobs report showed that hourly earnings rose in October at the fastest pace since 2009. The report probably came too late to sway many voters, but it is the latest sign that wage growth, long a weak spot in the recovery, is finally picking up.
The first election results won’t start rolling in for a few hours yet, but Republican control of the House of Representatives looks pretty safe. The GOP holds a 247-to-188 seat majority, and Democrats are likely to gain between five and 20 seats. Here’s a look at the most competitive races and how to interpret results as they come in, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight contributor David Wasserman.
| VERY BAD | BAD | GOOD | VERY GOOD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME (ET) | IF THEY’RE LOSING … | IF THEY’RE WINNING … | ||
| 6 P.M. | Indiana-9 | |||
| 7 P.M. | Florida-13 | Florida-7 | Florida-26 | Florida-18 |
| N.H.-1 | Virginia-10 | |||
| 8 P.M. | Illinois-10 | Maine-2 | Kansas-3 | |
| New Jersey-5 | Penn.-8 | Michigan-1 | ||
| Texas-23 | Michigan-8 | |||
| Penn.-16 | ||||
| 9 P.M. | Arizona-1 | Minnesota-2 | Colorado-6 | Minnesota-3 |
| New York-3 | Minnesota-8 | New York-19 | New York-22 | |
| Nebraska-2 | ||||
| 10 P.M. | Nevada-4 | Iowa-1 | Iowa-3 | |
| Nevada-3 | Utah-4 | |||
| 11 P.M. | California-7 | California-25 | California-10 | California-21 |
| California-24 | California-49 | |||
| 12 A.M. | Alaska-1 | |||
On the FiveThirtyEight Elections podcast Monday, my colleague Clare Malone said that this election has felt like one that has centered on Trump. I tend to agree. He’s certainly camped out in my brain space for the past 18 months. But I wonder if a case could be made that the animating force on the GOP side has been a white-hot hatred of Clinton and the establishment she’s seen to represent. We know, for instance, that more Trump voters are motivated to vote against Clinton than for their own candidate. It has certainly felt like this election is a referendum on Trump, but maybe Trump is simply the most extreme standard bearer for what was going to be a referendum on Clinton all along.
I wonder what my colleagues and you, dear readers, think. In the end, was this election more “about” Clinton or Trump?