Updated |
2016 Election Night
Live coverage and results
The first election results won’t start rolling in for a few hours yet, but Republican control of the House of Representatives looks pretty safe. The GOP holds a 247-to-188 seat majority, and Democrats are likely to gain between five and 20 seats. Here’s a look at the most competitive races and how to interpret results as they come in, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight contributor David Wasserman.
| VERY BAD | BAD | GOOD | VERY GOOD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME (ET) | IF THEY’RE LOSING … | IF THEY’RE WINNING … | ||
| 6 P.M. | Indiana-9 | |||
| 7 P.M. | Florida-13 | Florida-7 | Florida-26 | Florida-18 |
| N.H.-1 | Virginia-10 | |||
| 8 P.M. | Illinois-10 | Maine-2 | Kansas-3 | |
| New Jersey-5 | Penn.-8 | Michigan-1 | ||
| Texas-23 | Michigan-8 | |||
| Penn.-16 | ||||
| 9 P.M. | Arizona-1 | Minnesota-2 | Colorado-6 | Minnesota-3 |
| New York-3 | Minnesota-8 | New York-19 | New York-22 | |
| Nebraska-2 | ||||
| 10 P.M. | Nevada-4 | Iowa-1 | Iowa-3 | |
| Nevada-3 | Utah-4 | |||
| 11 P.M. | California-7 | California-25 | California-10 | California-21 |
| California-24 | California-49 | |||
| 12 A.M. | Alaska-1 | |||
On the FiveThirtyEight Elections podcast Monday, my colleague Clare Malone said that this election has felt like one that has centered on Trump. I tend to agree. He’s certainly camped out in my brain space for the past 18 months. But I wonder if a case could be made that the animating force on the GOP side has been a white-hot hatred of Clinton and the establishment she’s seen to represent. We know, for instance, that more Trump voters are motivated to vote against Clinton than for their own candidate. It has certainly felt like this election is a referendum on Trump, but maybe Trump is simply the most extreme standard bearer for what was going to be a referendum on Clinton all along.
I wonder what my colleagues and you, dear readers, think. In the end, was this election more “about” Clinton or Trump?
What Might We Learn About Turnout From 2016?
By now, there have been numerous reports of long lines and crowded polling places, and the possibility of high Latino turnout in Nevada and Florida. If it turns out to be true that this is a high-turnout election, what will that tell us? Political science has turned up a great deal of evidence to help us understand why some individuals vote and others don’t, but understanding the variation from election to election is more complicated. Polarization seems to be good for turnout, as more people have strong preferences about who wins. And that may be primarily what’s at work this year.
But there may be something different going on, too. If some voters went to the polls because of a sense of existential threat, that might be a qualitatively different thing from party polarization. It might also shed light on the question of whether negative campaigns depress turnout – or perhaps help to raise it? With more data, we may also be able to learn more about the potential for “ground game” to get out new and non-habitual voters.