2016 Election Night

Bellwether counties show us the election in microcosm. By mirroring at a local level what’s going on nationally, they offer a more human look at the political trends roiling the country. “The New Bellwethers” is a series by FiveThirtyEight senior political writer Clare Malone that examines a few select counties in key states where Clinton and Trump are polling very close to how they are in the U.S. overall (according to Morning Consult polling data collected from August through early October). Our first stop? Gaston County, North Carolina. To read Clare’s article on Gaston, click here.

We’re still several hours away from getting any actual election results, but investors seem to like whatever signs they’re seeing. The major U.S. stock indexes all ended the day higher, though they gave up some of their gains from earlier in the day. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4 percent, while the Dow Jones industrial average rose 73 points. (The Dow had been up more than 140 points earlier in the day.) As I noted earlier, some recent research has found that investors are rooting for a Clinton win. The Wall Street Journal’s Paul Vigna earlier today suggested that the markets were responding to real-time election estimates based on data from Votecastr. Those estimates, which are being published by Slate and Vice, have been generally favorable for Clinton. (At FiveThirtyEight, we’re watching the Votecastr experiment with interest but aren’t relying on its estimates.) It’s hard to know how much weight investors were giving to Votecastr’s estimates or other election-related tidbits; in fact, there’s no way to know for sure that today’s market moves were driven by the election, period. But at the very least investors don’t seem too concerned by what they’re seeing at the polls.

Trump vs. Clinton isn’t the only divisive question on the ballot this Election Day. Many voters will be considering marijuana legalization as well. Over the last 20 years, 25 states and Washington, D.C. have legalized or decriminalized medical marijuana, 15 have legalized the use of cannabis oil and four (plus D.C.) have approved recreational marijuana entirely. And today, nine more states are voting on marijuana measures — five (Arizona, California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada) to legalize recreational marijuana, and four (Arkansas, Florida, Montana and North Dakota) to legalize medical marijuana. Amidst all the legal changes, the country has become a whole lot more comfortable with the idea of legal pot: a Gallup poll shows support climbing from 25 percent in the mid-90s to 58 percent in 2015. Support has increased in all age brackets, and young adults now overwhelmingly support legalization (71 percent of them). “It’s our generation’s Vietnam,” said Brian Vicente, an activist and partner at the marijuana law firm Vicente Sederberg, of the current push to legalize the drug. Throughout the night, we’ll be bringing you a look at the ballot initiatives in these nine states, and whether they’re likely to pass. Activists, at least, are convinced tonight will be a banner moment: “The country that started the war on drugs and spread it around the world is now having a rebellion within,” Vicente said. “I think it’s going to be a really big, historical night.” CORRECTION (Nov. 8, 4:35 p.m.): An earlier version of this post listed Montana as one of the states voting on whether to legalize recreational marijuana. It is voting on whether to allow medical marijuana.