Live Coverage Of The First Republican Debate

Bush had the most questions directed to him by the moderators tonight (I’m not counting interruptions, follow-ups and closing statements). Despite Carson’s complaints, he’s comfortably in the middle of the pack, while Paul appears to have needed his frequent interruptions to be heard.

One striking thing about tonight’s debate: how little of a role the economy played. Sure, there were scattered references to jobs and incomes, and there was a section of the debate that focused on economic issues. But in a sharp contrast to four years ago, the candidates often seemed eager to shift attention to other issues. On the one hand, that shouldn’t be too surprising. The economy is in far better shape than it was four years ago. Job growth has been consistently strong. (Tune in tomorrow for our regular, if bleary-eyed, coverage of the monthly jobs report!) The unemployment rate is quickly returning to normal levels. Corporate profits have been strong, and the broader economy has generally weathered the various challenges thrown at it, including a crisis in Europe and a slowdown in China. But on the other hand, Americans remain cautious about the state of the economy. Weak wage growth has left many Americans feeling that the economic recovery is leaving them behind. And although inequality has generally been seen as a Democratic issue, it seems like there should be an opening for a Republican willing to challenge President Obama’s record on the issue. I’d expected more discussion of the economy in this debate, and I hope we’ll see more the next time around.

I have thoughts about who won and lost the debate, but I’m not trusting myself on who will drop or get a bounce out of the debate. Why? As Lynn Vavreck pointed out, a key experiment out of Arizona State in 2004 showed that voters’ minds can be greatly shaped by who the media says won or lost the debate. So while it pains me to watch cable news, I’ll be paying attention to the talking heads tonight and over the next few days.