FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver

We’ve written repeatedly about how opposition from the Republican Party establishment will ultimately make it difficult for Donald Trump to win the nomination, even if it helps him capitalize on anti-elite backlash in the short term. But Fox News — if it’s relationship with the GOP is more complicated than some observers might acknowledge — is a part of the Republican establishment too in many respects and is highly trusted by most Republicans. How it covers Trump will play an important role in how viable his campaign might remain over the next weeks and months, and if tonight is any indication, that coverage could be pretty tough.
Ben Casselman

Earlier I noted that the immigration debate often seems stuck in the 1990s. Donald Trump’s comments are a perfect example: He’s talking about building a wall to keep out undocumented immigrants from Mexico, at a time when illegal immigration has slowed and the U.S. is now getting more new immigrants from Asia than from Latin America. Jeb Bush, meanwhile, makes a point that’s often lost: Many undocumented immigrants are visa-overstayers, meaning they entered the country legally but didn’t leave when they were meant to. A 2006 Pew report estimated that 40 percent of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. initially came here legally.

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