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War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Trump Won In A Landslide.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway — perhaps seeking to push back on the increasing attention to Hillary Clinton’s widening lead in the national popular vote — has been touting her boss’s margin of victory in the Electoral College. With Trump officially declared the winner in Michigan on Monday, he’s got 306 electoral votes — 56.9 percent of the available total of 538 and nothing to sneeze at. That’s more than George W. Bush got in either of his Electoral College victories, making it the highest total for a Republican since 1988.

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But in a historical context, Trump’s Electoral College performance is decidedly below-average. So it’s a bit Orwellian to call it a “landslide” or a “blowout.” There have been 54 presidential elections since the ratification of the 12th Amendment in 1804. (Before that, presidential electors cast two votes each, making it hard to compare them to present-day elections.) Of those 54 cases, Trump’s share of the electoral vote — assuming there are no faithless electors or results overturned by recounts — ranks 44th:

ELECTORAL VOTES
RANK ELECTION WINNER TOTAL WINNER WINNER’S SHARE
1 1820 James Monroe 232 231 99.6
2 1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 531 523 98.5
3 1984 Ronald Reagan 538 525 97.6
4 1972 Richard Nixon 538 520 96.7
5 1804 Thomas Jefferson 176 162 92.0
6 1864 Abraham Lincoln 233 212 91.0
7 1980 Ronald Reagan 538 489 90.9
8 1964 Lyndon B. Johnson 538 486 90.3
9 1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt 531 472 88.9
10 1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower 531 457 86.1
11 1852 Franklin Pierce 296 254 85.8
12 1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 531 449 84.6
13 1816 James Monroe 217 183 84.3
14 1928 Herbert Hoover 531 444 83.6
15 1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower 531 442 83.2
16 1912 Woodrow Wilson 531 435 81.9
17 1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 531 432 81.4
18 1872 Ulysses S. Grant 352 286 81.3
19 1840 William Henry Harrison 294 234 79.6
20 1988 George H. W. Bush 538 426 79.2
21 1832 Andrew Jackson 286 219 76.6
22 1920 Warren G. Harding 531 404 76.1
23 1868 Ulysses S. Grant 294 214 72.8
24 1924 Calvin Coolidge 531 382 71.9
25 1904 Theodore Roosevelt 476 336 70.6
26 1996 Bill Clinton 538 379 70.4
27 1808 James Madison 175 122 69.7
28 1992 Bill Clinton 538 370 68.8
29 1828 Andrew Jackson 261 178 68.2
30 2008 Barack Obama 538 365 67.8
31 1908 William Howard Taft 483 321 66.5
32 1900 William McKinley 447 292 65.3
33 1892 Grover Cleveland 444 277 62.4
34 1844 James K. Polk 275 170 61.8
35 2012 Barack Obama 538 332 61.7
36 1896 William McKinley 447 271 60.6
37 1860 Abraham Lincoln 303 180 59.4
38 1812 James Madison 217 128 59.0
39 1856 James Buchanan 296 174 58.8
40 1888 Benjamin Harrison 401 233 58.1
41 1880 James A. Garfield 369 214 58.0
42 1836 Martin Van Buren 294 170 57.8
43 1948 Harry S. Truman 531 303 57.1
44 2016 Donald Trump 538 306 56.9
45 1960 John F. Kennedy 537 303 56.4
46 1848 Zachary Taylor 290 163 56.2
47 1968 Richard Nixon 538 301 55.9
48 1976 Jimmy Carter 538 297 55.2
49 1884 Grover Cleveland 401 219 54.6
50 2004 George W. Bush 538 286 53.2
51 1916 Woodrow Wilson 531 277 52.2
52 2000 George W. Bush 538 271 50.4
53 1876 Rutherford B. Hayes 369 185 50.1
54 1824 John Quincy Adams 261 84 32.2
Trump’s share of the Electoral College is below average

Sources: Wikipedia, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

By comparison, the average Electoral College winner claimed 70.9 percent of the available electoral votes, which would equate to 381 electoral votes given today’s total of 538 electors. For my money, it’s a bit much to call something a “landslide” when it can’t top that threshold. It’s not clear to me that President Obama’s win in 2008 should be thought of as a landslide, for instance. And Trump’s win surely doesn’t qualify. But cheer up, Trump fans: Your guy was elected president of the United States.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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