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Vancouver Medal Count Projections: Day 8

The United States is now starting to develop a pretty solid lead in the overall medals projection, now forecast to win 34.7 medals to Canada’s 29.7 and Germany’s 27.3. Picking up not one but two medals in the men’s Super-G was a pretty big coup, as only two of nine forecasters had the U.S. winning any medals in that discipline at all. Meanwhile, Canada was hurt by failing to medal in women’s skeleton, when many forecasters had expected a gold, while Germany seems stuck in place.

Meanwhile, in the gold medals projection, we have the emergence of a bit of a darkhorse in Norway, which was struggling in Vancouver early on but won 2 of the 4 golds yesterday to move ahead of Germany in the projections. Canada’s however, which did win gold in the men’s skeleton, still projects to finish in the top spot.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.