FiveThirtyEight

The last professional football game that mattered was Super Bowl 50, when the Denver Broncos beat the Carolina Panthers, 24-10. And when those same two teams take the field Thursday night in Denver, it will be the first Super Bowl rematch ever to occur on the opening night of an NFL season.

The NFL introduced the idea of a lone Thursday Night game to kick off the season in 2002, and two years later the league started making the game a home showcase for the defending Super Bowl champion. (It’s worked out in all but two years since. In 2013, a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Orioles made the Ravens travel to Denver for the opening game, where they lost 49-27. And another conflict, this time with President Obama’s speech at the Democratic National Convention, caused the Giants to host the Cowboys on a Wednesday night — and lose, 24-17 — in 2012.) In those Thursday night home games, the defending Super Bowl champion boasts a perfect 10-0 record.

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Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com

But that doesn’t mean the Broncos are a lock to win Thursday night. All 10 of those teams were favored, which also means the favorites are 10-0 in these games (and an even better 13-0 in all Thursday Night kickoff games; the only favorites to lose the kickoff game being the 2012 Giants, at home on a Wednesday night.) And on Thursday, Carolina is favored by 3 points — only the third time since 1978 that a defending Super Bowl champ was at home but not favored in Week 1 of the following season. So it’s a split that gives both fan bases some history to point to for optimism in the opener.

As for Super Bowl rematches? The defending champion has gone 4-2 in those games, and has also been at home in four of six games. (That may be a good omen for the Broncos, who were on the other side of things just two years ago.) Here’s a rundown of those rematches:

Broncos fans probably noticed that the defending champion won four of the last five Super Bowl rematches, and the lone outlier — the 1993 Cowboys — wound up winning the Super Bowl that year. If you’re a Panthers fan, you can point to that 13-0 Thursday night record among favorites.

And if you’re an NFL fan, you can just be happy that football is — finally — back.


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