FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the Week

Gallup’s most recent weekly survey, conducted from Feb. 5 to 11, showed President Trump’s job approval rating among self-identified Republicans at 86 percent. It was the third straight week that his rating was above 85 percent — an improvement compared with 2017. Trump’s support among Republicans spent much of last year in the low 80s, even dipping into the 70s at times.

SurveyMonkey polling from the first week of February shows a similar pattern: 89 percent of Republicans said they approve of Trump’s handling of his job as president. And the share of Republicans who “strongly approve” — in the mid-50s for much of last year — is up to 61 percent.

It’s not totally clear why Trump is getting a boost among Republicans. Perhaps positive economic news has brought some wary GOP voters home. Perhaps Republican partisans are happy that Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress passed some major legislation. But that increased support is showing up in Trump’s overall approval rating. It was stuck in the high 30s for a lot of last year but is now in the low 40s.

Presidents traditionally have overwhelming support from Americans in their own parties. But Trump’s support among Republicans in 2017 was soft, at least by recent historical standards. George W. Bush’s approval rating, for example, didn’t fall below 85 percent among Republicans during his first year in office, according to Gallup, and Obama’s was generally in the high 80s and low 90s among Democrats throughout 2009.

Why does this matter? Generally, presidents with low approval ratings drag down their parties’ down-ballot candidates. Indeed, special elections in 2017 and this year have showed Democrats outperforming almost everywhere.

But Trump’s more solid backing in the Republican Party could have more direct effects too. For example:

Other polling nuggets

Support for military parades follows party lines

Share of people who support or oppose a military parade, February 2018

Note: YouGov results are among adults; Morning Consult and PPP’s are among registered voters.

Trump’s job approval rating

Trump’s job approval rating is at 41.5 percent, while his disapproval rating is at 53.2 percent. Last week, his approval rating was 41 percent, compared with a disapproval rating of 54 percent.

The generic ballot

The Democrats hold a 46.9 percent to 40.4 percent advantage on the generic congressional ballot this week. Last week, Democrats were up 47.1 percent to 40.2 percent.

Dhrumil Mehta contributed research.

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