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Live Coverage: Super Tuesday

The biggest day so far in the race for the Republican presidential nomination — 11 states weigh-in — could solidify Mitt Romney’s grip on the nomination or upend the contest. We’ll be bringing you data-driven analysis, exit poll information, historical perspective and state-by-state results.

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0:54 A.M. The Aesthetics of Ohio and Michigan

Mitt Romney’s margins in Michigan and Ohio — the Associated Press has called Ohio for Mr. Romney, although The New York Times has not yet – weren’t much different from one another: 3.2 percentage points in the former state, and 1.0 percentage points in the latter.

But the benefit of winning a state is mostly symbolic, especially in a state like Ohio which divides most of its delegates by Congressional district and the remainder proportionately. And the aesthetics of Ohio and Michigan were much different, although for somewhat arbitrary reasons.

Michigan counted its vote very quickly, and Mr. Romney led almost the whole way along — often by slightly larger than the 3.2 point margin that he wound up with.

Ohio counted its vote slowly, and Mr. Romney trailed for most of the evening, sometimes by as many as 3 or 4 points.

In Michigan, Mr. Romney’s win came by a slightly larger margin than polls expected, but the difference was in well within most survey’s margin of error. In Ohio, Mr. Romney leads by a slightly smaller margin than some polls called for, but the polling average was nevertheless very close.

Mr. Romney’s narrow win in Michigan came at a time when his campaign seemed to be struggling. His probable win in Ohio came when he seemed to have the momentum and expectations were higher.

In Michigan, there was nothing else to look at except for that state’s results — that and Arizona, where Mr. Romney did very well. But on Tuesday night, Mr. Romney had lost four other states by the time that the A.P. called Ohio, changing the context that Ohio was viewed in.

Should any of this matter? In my view, it probably shouldn’t. In fact, I tend to find Mr. Romney’s one-point lead in Ohio more impressive than his three-point win in Michigan since the latter was his home state — something that is probably worth at least several points to him.

But, factors like these do affect the way that the results are reported upon and can therefore affect the momentum of the race, for better or for worse.

Nate Silver

0:32 A.M. Some Perspective on Romney’s Ohio Margin

Mitt Romney’s lead in Ohio — currently reported as 12,040 votes — might seem tiny, and it is in any reasonable sense.

Still, at least we’re talking about a difference in the five figures, as compared to the eight-vote margin that Mr. Romney initially led by in Iowa.

In fact, the 10,425-vote margin is larger than the entire turnout in one Republican state, Maine, where just 5,585 people participated in that state’s caucuses.

Nate Silver

0:17 A.M. In Ohio, Two House Members Go Down in Primaries

The Republican presidential primary in Ohio may still be too close to call, but two incumbent members of the House of Representatives have already fallen victim to Ohio primary voters.

Representative Jean Schmidt has lost to Tea-Party-backed candidate Ben Wenstrup in the Republican primary to represent Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District. Mr. Wenstrup becomes the favorite to win the seat; Republican Senator John McCain won 54 percent of the district’s vote in 2008.

Meanwhile, in the state’s 9th Congressional District, it looks like Representative Marcy Kaptur has ousted fellow Democratic Representative Dennis Kucinich. With over 80 percent of precincts reporting, Ms. Kaptur is leading Mr. Kucinich 60 percent to 36 percent. The two incumbent Democrats had been forced to face-off after Ohio redrew its district lines.

Micah Cohen

0:06 A.M. Tiny Turnout in Virginia

All of the vote has been counted in Virginia, and just 265,527 Republicans turned out to vote there in a contest where only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot.

Turnout was about double that, 489,252 Republicans, in the contest there in 2008. And that year was only semi-competitive, since Virginia held its primary after Super Tuesday when candidates like Mitt Romney had already dropped out.

Nate Silver

11:54 P.M. An Updated Cuyahoga Count

News network vote tabulations have been slow to report results in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, where Mr. Romney leads but much of the vote is uncounted.

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has more updated results, however. They show 954 of 1,082 precincts reporting, and a Romney lead by 14,662 votes.

The network tally, which had 635 precincts reporting, had Mr. Romney up by 10,425 votes in the county, so he will gain some votes as these additional precincts are added to his statewide totals.

Nate Silver

11:42 P.M. The Santorum Belt

All of the states that Rick Santorum has won so far — North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Tennessee and Colorado — are contiguous with one another, forming a belt that stretches north-to-south through the midpoint of the country.

Although it is aesthetically pleasing to look at this on the map, most of these states have relatively low populations. Mr. Santorum has so far not been able to expand map eastward into the industrial Midwest — although that will change if he pulls out Ohio. He has also been blocked by Newt Gingrich so far in the Deep South.

A state that would appear to be within the Santorum Belt, Kansas, holds its caucuses on Saturday. And Alabama and Mississippi, which vote a week from today, are on the southern frontier of it.

Nate Silver

11:38 P.M. In Ohio, Margin Hovers Near Recount Threshold

In addition to who wins in Ohio, pay attention to the margin. Ohio state law dictates that if the winning margin is less than 0.25 percent a recount is triggered.

Mitt Romney’s current lead over Rick Santorum exceeds that threshold, but 9 percent of precincts have yet to report.

Micah Cohen

11:25 P.M. Santorum Falling Just Short of Ga. Delegate Threshold

With 95 percent of the vote counted in Georgia, Rick Santorum has 19.6 percent of the vote. The decimal place is important because candidates need 20 percent of the vote to be eligible for proportional delegates in Georgia.

But Mr. Santorum will probably fall just short; most of the uncounted results so far are in DeKalb County, where Mr. Santorum has just 12 percent of the vote so far.

Nate Silver

11:18 P.M. Romney Wins Clermont County

We told you just a moment ago to watch the results carefully in Clermont County to the east of Cincinnati, where only one precinct had reported. The votes are in, and it went for Mr. Romney, who won the county by 900 votes.

Although the margin wasn’t huge, that’s a much better result for Mr. Romney than in the first areas to report in Clermont, which had given Mr. Santorum a lead. Extrapolations that we were making earlier based on the initial precincts there had assumed that Mr. Santorum would gain rather than lose ground in Clermont — which would have been key to counteracting uncounted votes in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County, which have gone for Mr. Romney so far.

Now that the Clermont results are in, the bulk of the uncounted vote appears to be in areas that will favor Mr. Romney, although there are a few stray industrial and rural precincts left to report here and there.

Nate Silver

11:05 P.M. Cuyahoga, Medina and Clermont

Mitt Romney has closed his deficit with Rick Santorum to about 2,500 votes. Can he get over the top?

He probably would if the only votes left were in Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, where Mr. Romney leads by about 7,000 votes so far — but only 40 percent of precincts have reported. That could yield a net of 10,000 votes or so for Mr. Romney. But it’s hard to say for sure because Cuyahoga contains both Cleveland itself — where Republican turnout should be light — as well as more suburban areas.

Mr. Romney should also gain votes in Medina County, which has reported very few results.

But apart from Cuyahoga and Medina, much of the results in Mr. Romney’s more favorable areas have been counted; the Columbus area is about 90 percent reported and Cincinnati and its suburbs are about 80 percent reported.

One exception in the Cincinnati area is Clermont County to the west of Cincinnati. Just one of 200 precincts has reported there so far, and that precinct voted for Mr. Santorum, but it contains a combination of suburban and exurban areas that could yield mixed results.

Suffice it to say, this remains too close to call.

Nate Silver

10:38 P.M. Gingrich Performing Poorly Outside Georgia

Newt Gingrich notched a big win in his home state of Georgia tonight which was called almost as soon as polls closed. But there is little sign of success for him elsewhere.

In fact, outside of Georgia, Mr. Gingrich is running in third place or worse in all states that have reported results so far. He is behind Mitt Romney in Oklahoma and Tennessee, and has only about 15 percent of the vote in Ohio — not enough to receive proportional delegates there, which would require a 20 percent margin. Nor has he shown any sign of life in the caucus states.

Nate Silver

10:18 P.M. Democratic Vote May Prove Decisive in Ohio

Operation Hilarity, in which Michigan Democrats planned to meddle in the Republican nominating process by voting for Rick Santorum, was not successful, at least not enough to tip the state into Mr. Santorum’s column.

But if Mr. Santorum holds on to win Ohio by 1 or 2 percentage points, Democrats may account for at least part, and perhaps all, of the margin.

According to exit polls, Democrats constituted 5 percent of the Ohio primary electorate, and 45 percent of them voted for Mr. Santorum. Just 25 percent voted for Mitt Romney.

That translates roughly into a 1 or 2 percentage point bump for Mr. Santorum.

Micah Cohen

10:17 P.M. More Ohio Extrapolations

In our last update, we extrapolated where the Ohio results were headed based on an assumption that turnout would be proportional to 2008, and found a very slight advantage for Mr. Santorum by that method.

A simpler approach is to be to extrapolate out the results based on the percentage of precincts that have reported in each county so far. This method also shows a slight advantage for Mr. Santorum, putting him on pace to win the state by about 35,000 votes or 2 percentage points over Mr. Romney.

Still, this method ignores counties that haven’t reported results at all yet. A key one could be Medina County, which is in suburban Cleveland and is reasonably well off — possibly strong territory for Mr. Romney. About 19,000 Republicans voted in Medina County in 2008.

Nate Silver

9:41 P.M. Where Is Ohio Headed?

Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by about 3 points in Ohio with a third of the vote counted. But are the areas that have reported so far representative of the entire state?

One way to get an idea of this is to assume that each county will account for the same share of the state’s vote that it did in 2008. This method is potentially more reliable than making extrapolations based on the number of precincts that have have reported in each county, since precincts can vary significantly within a county in the number of voters they contain.

If you weight the 2012 margins between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Mr. Santorum’s margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points.

Obviously that is very close and there are some problems with this method. A handful of small Ohio counties haven’t reported results at all, for instance, and the assumption that turnout will be proportional to 2008 is not necessarily correct. But it looks like Mr. Santorum has the slightest of edges here.

Nate Silver

9:32 P.M. A Warning for Romney in Gallup Tracking Poll?

So far, Mitt Romney is under-performing his polls in most states that have reported results so far, while Rick Santorum is over-performing his — possibly by a wide enough margin to swing Ohio, where Mr. Romney had appeared to have a slight advantage in the surveys but Mr. Santorum now leads in the vote count.

Although the polling data generally showed improving numbers for Mr. Romney over the course of the last week, there was one exception. The Gallup national tracking poll released on Tuesday afternoon showed Mr. Romney’s numbers declining by 4 points, and Mr. Santorum gaining 2.

Although only a portion of the Gallup poll’s interviews were conducted on Monday, that still postdates the polls that were in the field in Ohio, Georgia, and Tennessee, almost all of which closed shop on Sunday night. Exit polls from Ohio, meanwhile, suggested that while Mr. Romney performed more strongly than Mr. Santorum among voters who decided over the past week, the reverse was true among voters who made a choice just today.

It’s possible that some of the momentum that Mr. Romney received from his big wins in Arizona and Michigan faded — as happens fairly often after a candidate gets favorable headlines for several days. A similar situation may have contributed to Hillary Rodham Clinton’s upset win in New Hampshire in 2008, which had followed Barack Obama’s win in Iowa.

Nate Silver

9:37 P.M. A Democratic Primary of Note

The Republican primaries taking places around the country are not alone. There is at least one Democratic primary of consequence tonight: the first redistricting-induced incumbent vs. incumbent primary is taking place in Ohio. Democratic Representatives Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur are facing off for their party’s nomination to run in the new 9th district.

With 17 percent of precincts reporting, Ms. Kaptur is leading Mr. Kucinich by just over 2000 votes.

Micah Cohen

9:12 P.M. The Urban-Rural Split in Ohio

We warned you earlier that the Ohio results would tighten once more rural areas began to report their vote. And they have; in fact, the advantage has now flipped to Rick Santorum, who holds about a 2 point lead there.

So far, Mitt Romney leads Mr. Santorum by about 10 points between Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties, where Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati are located. But Mr. Santorum leads by about 5 points elsewhere in the state.

Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton Counties ac
counted for about 20 percent of the Republican primary vote in 2008, and about 19 percent of the vote tallied so far this year. So the votes we have seen so far are reasonably representative.

Nate Silver

8:49 P.M. Santorum Margin in Tenn. Likely to Exceed Polls

Many networks have already called Tennessee for Rick Santorum. He was projected to about a 7-point win by exit polls there, and leads by more than that, almost 15 points, in the precincts that have reported so far.

Pre-election polls in Tennessee had projected a tighter race, showing both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich closing on Mr. Santorum and reducing his lead to about 2 points. One pollster, in fact, We Ask America, actually gave Mr. Romney the lead there in its final survey.

It looks like Mr. Romney may underperform his polls somewhat, but the bigger miss may be on Mr. Gingrich, who is not assured of reaching the 20 percent threshold required to win proportional delegates there. Most of the movement in the Tennessee polls had been between Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum, with Mr. Romney’s numbers somewhat steadier; it looks like the that late surge did not materialize for Mr. Gingrich, or that Mr. Santorum’s advantage in early voting had been too large.

Nate Silver

8:48 P.M. Close Race in Ohio Breaks With Tradition

Whether Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney win the primary in Ohio, this year’s Buckeye state contest is likely to be the narrowest Ohio Republican primary since the modern primary system was established in 1972.

The 2012 primary’s only real competition is the 1976 contest between sitting President Gerald Ford and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, which Mr. Ford won 55 percent to 45 percent. After 1976, the next closest G.O.P. primary in Ohio was former President George W. Bush’s 21 percentage point victory of Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Ohio Democrats have had a few close contests, including the victory in 1984 by then Senator Gary Hart of Colorado over former Vice President Walter Mondale, 42 percent to 40 percent.

The main reason for Ohio’s traditional lack of competition on the Republican side is that before 1996, the state held its contest in the spring, usually long after the fight for the nomination had been settled.

Micah Cohen

8:32 P.M. Ohio Margin Should Tighten as Rural Areas Report

Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by about 6 percent in Ohio based on the precincts that have reported so far. However, this vote is in some of his strongest areas, and the margin should tighten as more rural areas report.

About 60 percent of the votes tabulated so far are from Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties, home to Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, respectively. But only about 20 percent of the votes in the Republican primary in 2008 was cast in one of those counties, meaning it the current vote count is disproportionately weighted toward these areas.

Nate Silver

8:23 P.M. Suburban/Exurban Divide in Georgia

Newt Gingrich is headed to a sweeping win in Georgia tonight, but there is some question about whether he will win all 14 of the state’s Congressional districts. Georgia allocates most of its delegates at the district level; candidates win 3 delegates if they take an outright majority of the district, and they are split 2-1 among the top two finishers otherwise.

The only place where Mr. Gingrich could be vulnerable to Congressional district losses is in suburban Atlanta. There, he and Mr. Romney were virtually tied in the exit poll.

However, the Atlanta metropolitan area sprawls out through most of northeast Georgia, and Mr. Gingrich is running significantly better than Mr. Romney in more far-flung exurban areas, leading him 48 to 26 there, according to the exit polls. A few Congressional districts could be interesting to watch based on their suburban-exurban mix.

Nate Silver

8:12 P.M. Exit Polls Have Santorum Holding in Oklahoma

Oklahoma was one of those states that didn’t get polled a lot in the final few days of the campaign — a period during which Rick Santorum was slumping in other states.

The exit polls, however, suggest that Mr. Santorum should be okay there. They have him at about 38 percent of the vote, with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich at about 26 and 24 percent, respectively.

Although that would be a decent result for Mr. Santorum, it wouldn’t be a great one. Oklahoma’s delegate rules default to winner-take-all if a candidate hits 50 percent of the vote there, something which had seemed possible for Mr. Santorum in Oklahoma a few weeks ago. With the candidates in the range suggested by the exit polls, however, they will be relatively proportionate.

Nate Silver

8:05 P.M. Romney Favored to Win All Mass. Delegates

Massachusetts’ delegate allocation is proportional with one important exception — candidates must receive at least 15 percent of the vote to qualify for delegates there.

An easy bar to clear, right? Not in a state where Mitt Romney is so dominant. There is little vote in from Massachusetts yet, but exit polls projected Mr. Romney’s next-closest competitor, Rick Santorum, to about 12 percent of the vote there instead. If the
result holds, Mr. Romney would take all 38 delegates from the state.

Nate Silver

8:06 P.M. In Vermont, New Hampshire’s Grass Looks Good

The Republican primary in Vermont has been called for Mitt Romney. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. Mr. Romney won the G.O.P. primary in neighboring New Hampshire, and since Vermont reinstituted its primary in 1976, after a 60-year hiatus, the state has voted for the New Hampshire winner all but three times.

In 1996, Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire, but Bob Dole won Vermont. John Kerry won New Hampshire in 2004, while Howard Dean, who had served as Vermont governor, won his home state. And in 2008, Hillary Clinton scored an upset win in New Hampshire, but Barack Obama won Vermont.

Although the tops of the states’ scoreboards have traditionally matched, more moderate Republicans have done much better in Vermont than they have in New Hampshire. For instance, in 1980 Rep. John Anderson of Illinois, who would go on to run as an independent in the general election, barely lost Vermont to Ronald Reagan, 30 percent to 29 percent. In New Hampshire, however, Mr. Anderson received just 10 percent of the primary vote.

Micah Cohen

7:46 P.M. Catholic Vote Could Hurt Santorum in Ohio

Exit polls in Ohio show Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied among Protestant voters — but they have Mitt Romney leading, 43 to 30, among Catholic ones.

This pattern isn’t new — it also manifested itself in Michigan — but Ohio has slightly more Catholic voters than Michigan does.

Nate Silver

7:39 P.M. Gingrich, Paul Likely Shut Out of Ohio Delegates

Exit polls suggest that Ohio is too close to call between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum — although the poll gave Mr. Romney a slight edge. One thing that seems clearer, however, is that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will win few if any delegates there.

Ohio is another state that requires candidates to reach a 20 percent threshold in the statewide vote to receive proportional delegates, but the exit polls had Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Paul projecting to the low teens instead.

If the results hold up, the only way for Mr. Gingrich or Mr. Paul to win Ohio delegates would be to win a Congressional district. But if they run 25 or 30 points behind the front-runners, it is unlikely that they will do so.

Nate Silver

7:34 P.M. Santorum Close to Delegate Cutoff in Ga.

Georgia rules require that a candidate get at least 20 percent of the vote statewide to get proportional delegates there. (The candidate is still eligible for Congressional district delegates even if he does not meet this threshold.)

Exit polls project that this could be a close call for Mr. Santorum; they had him tracking to almost exactly 20 percent of the vote in Georgia. He is doing slightly better than that in the actual vote count so far, with 26 percent of the vote, but most of the few precincts that have reported so far are from south and central Georgia and are likely to be stronger for Mr. Santorum than the Atlanta area.

Nate Silver

7:26 P.M. Home State Advantages

Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich appeared to enjoy home-state advantages Tuesday: Mr. Romney in Massachusetts, where he served as governor from 2003 to 2007, and Mr. Gingrich in Georgia, where he represented the state’s 6th congressional district from 1979 to 1999.

How much did these advantages matter? In Georgia, according to preliminary exit polls, 37 percent of voters said Mr. Gingrich’s ties to the state mattered “a great deal” or “somewhat.” Mr. Romney’s Massachusetts-connection was at least somewhat of a factor for 43 percent of voters.

Georgia has been called for Mr. Gingrich, and Mr. Romney is the overwhelming favorite in Massachusetts.

Micah Cohen

7:17 P.M. Can Paul Win Virginia Delegates?

Exit polls — and very early voting tabulations — show a somewhat closer result in Virginia than polls had projected, with Mr. Paul winning perhaps 35 or 40 percent of the vote.

Mr. Paul and Mitt Romney are the only two candidates on the ballot in Virginia, which means that Mr. Romney is tracking to 60 or 65 percent of the vote and a solid win there. Virginia awards 13 delegates to any candidate who wins a majority of the statewide vote, as Mr. Romney is likely to do.

Most of Virginia’s delegates are awarded winner-take-all at the Congressional district level, however. Is Mr. Paul close enough to Mr. Romney that he could snag one or two districts?

Perhaps. The exit poll found that Mr. Paul’s strongest region was Eastern Virginia and the Richmond area, where he trailed Mr. Romney by about 12 points in the exit poll. It’s possible that Mr. Paul could win one or two of the more rural districts in that part of the state.

Nate Silver

7:10 P.M. No Winner-Take-All for Romney in Vermont

No votes have been counted yet, but CNN’s exit poll in Vermont found that both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were over the 20 percent threshold required to receive delegates there. (Our guess was that this would be true for Mr. Paul but not Mr. Santorum.)

If the exit poll results hold up, Mr. Romney would carry about 8 to 10 delegates out of the 17 that Vermont awards, versus 4 or 5 for Mr. Paul and about 4 for Mr. Santorum. Still, the exit poll sample size was especially small in Vermont, so we should watch carefully as actual results trickle in.

Nate Silver

6:59 P.M. At Intrade, the Primaries Are Decided

There haven’t been any actual votes reported from Super Tuesday states yet, but the betting market Intrade has mostly made up its mind. The contract on Mitt Romney to win Ohio’s Republican primary is up over $9 a share, which means the market believes Mr. Romney has greater than a 90 percent chance of winning.

According to Intrade, Newt Gingrich has a 99 percent chance of winning the Georgia primary, Rick Santorum has a 94 percent chance of winning in Oklahoma and a 76 chance in Tennessee.

Micah Cohen

6:46 P.M. Southern G.O.P. Voters Care About Candidates’ Religion

In Tennessee, according to early exit polls, 74 percent of voters said they cared either somewhat or a great deal about a candidate’s religion. That figure was also high, 69 percent, in Georgia.

Even by the standards of Southern states, that number is fairly high; it was 60 percent in South Carolina by comparison, for instance.

In Ohio, meanwhile, 62 percent of voters said the candidate’s religious beliefs matter somewhat or a great deal, as compared with 56 percent in Michigan.

Nate Silver

6:39 P.M. Ohio Has Been Good G.O.P. Bellwether

Ohio has voted for the eventual Republican nominee in each nomination cycle since the modern primary era began in 1972. It is one of 10 states to have done so; the others are Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Wisconsin.

The most rebellious G.O.P. states have been Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Louisiana, Nevada and Wyoming, each of which voted against the G.O.P. nominee 3 times in primaries or caucuses.

Nate Silver

6:25 P.M. In Ohio, Exit Polls Show Signs of Voter Indifference

There have been various anecdotal accounts of low turnout in Ohio today, and a result from the exit polls may help to explain why.

In Ohio, just 43 percent of voters said they strongly favored their candidate. Another 41 percent said they liked their candidate but with reservations, while 13 percent said they voted for him solely because they disliked the other candidates.

The 43 percent “strongly favor” figure is the lowest in any state so far, although exit polls have not posed this question to voters in all states. The figure was 63 percent in Iowa, 51 percent in Arizona, and 45 percent in Michigan.

The Ohio figure is also lower than other states which voted today. In Georgia, 56 percent of voters strongly favored their candidate, in Massachusetts 54 percent, and in Tennessee 48 percent.

Nate Silver

6:15 P.M. More Late-Deciders in Georgia

Georgia had shown relatively sharp late movement in the polls, with Newt Gingrich gaining several points in the polls over the course of the past week. And exit polls find there are more late-deciding voters in Georgia than the other states that voted tonight.

Some 31 percent of voters in Georgia made their decision either today or in the past few days, according to the exit polls. That figure is somewhat lower, 27 percent, in Ohio this year, and it was 24 percent in Tennessee.

In Michigan last week, 24 percent of voters made up their minds in the few days before the election or election day itself, according to the exit polls, while 15 percent did in Arizona. The number in Florida was 26 percent.

To find truly impressive numbers of late-deciders, however, you’d have to look toward South Carolina. There, 55 percent of voters decided in the final few days before the election, most of them for Mr. Gingrich.

Nate Silver

6:17 P.M. In Ohio, Fiscal vs. Social Conservatives

According to very preliminary exit poll data in Ohio, 2 in 5 voters described themselves as “very conservative” on fiscal issues while just half that many described themselves as “very conservative” on social issues.

That would seem like unwelcome news for the Rick Santorum, who has focused more on social issues than the other candidates, even criticizing the Romney campaign for focusing only on economic concerns.

The Ohio economy fell into recession faster than the national economy, but has also recovered faster, driven by a reinvigorated manufacturing sector. Statewide, Ohio’s unemployment rate is 7.9 percent, below the national rate of 8.5 percent.

Still, the recovery has been uneven, and some pockets in the state are still struggling: 16 of Ohio’s 88 counties had a jobless rate of at least 10 percent in December.

Micah Cohen

6:03 P.M. Ohio Republicans Once Were Moderate

According to early-stage exit polls, 31 percent of voters in the Ohio Republican primary identified as very conservative, and 32 percent as somewhat conservative. Those figure aren’t much different from 2008, when 30 percent of voters said they were very conservative and 35 percent somewhat conservative.

They are significantly different, however, than in the Republican voting in 2000 and 1996, when the Republican electorate was much more moderate in Ohio. In those years, just 15 and 17 percent of Republicans said they were very conservative, while the slight majority of the G.O.P. primary electorate instead identified as moderate or liberal.

Nate Silver

5:59 P.M. Evangelical Turnout Up in Ohio, Tenn., Ga.

The share of voters who identify as evangelical is up slightly from 2008 in both Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia, according to early exit polls.

In Ohio, 45 percent of Republican primary voters identified as white and evangelical or born-again Christians, according to the exit poll. The same figure was 40 percent in 2008. Pollsters conducted before the election somewhat split the difference between these two figures; in the recent Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio, for instance, 43 percent of voters identified as evangelical Christians, although the poll did not specify whether they were white or of another race.

In Tennessee, 71 percent of Republican voters were white evangelicals, according to the exit polls, up from 66 percent in 2008.

Finally, in Georgia, 62 percent of Republican voters were white evangelicals, up from 56 percent in 2008.

Nate Silver

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.