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Is Dixville Notch Predictive?

In a word: No. There’s no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates In Dixville Notch and their performances in the rest of New Hampshire — never mind the rest of the country:

Still, you’d rather be up 15-6 than down, wouldn’t you?

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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