FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

Let’s keep things simple this week: Morning Consult just released its latest edition of President Trump’s approval ratings by state. We know generally that Trump is less popular overall than at the start of his term. But there are pretty wide variations in how much his popularity has shifted by state.

1. Trump’s net approval has declined in all 50 states since he took office

This isn’t totally surprising, as Trump’s net approval rating — the percentage of people who approve of the president minus the percentage who disapprove — has declined nationally since January 2017. But it’s still noteworthy. It often seems as if American politics is split between two immutable camps: Trump loyalists and Trump haters, and neither group ever changes its mind about anything. But the data here suggests more fluidity — and in Trump’s case, the movement is against him. Trump does have near-ironclad support (close to 90 percent approval, according to Gallup) among self-described Republicans nationally. But a Gallup poll conducted last year found that only about 40 percent of U.S. adults identify themselves as either Republicans or leaning toward the GOP. So that remaining 60 percent of the U.S. that identifies as Democrats and independents is likely where Trump has grown more unpopular.

How Trump’s net approval rating has changed, by state

Source: Morning Consult

The states where Trump’s numbers have tanked the most among registered voters are fairly liberal: Illinois and New Mexico. But even in Louisiana, where Trump has seen the smallest decline, he has dipped 6 percentage points in net approval (from 59 percent approve, 28 percent disapprove in January 2017, to 60-35 in May 2018).

All that said, Trump’s approval declining in every state isn’t as bad for the president as you might think. According to Gallup, Obama’s approval rating dropped in all 50 states from 2009 to 2010, again as part of his general decline in popularity. Most presidents’ popularity peaks as they start their tenures.

2. Trump has seen big declines in some red states but not others

Eight of the 10 states (I’m treating Washington, D.C., as a state for these purposes.) where Trump’s net approval declined the most are places where the president lost in 2016. But his popularity has plunged more in ruby-red Utah (-27 points), Oklahoma (-23) and Montana (-21) than in swingy Colorado (-17) and blue California (-15). (Trump of course started with pretty lackluster numbers California and Colorado, so he had more room to fall in the red states.) That said, his numbers have held up much better in states such as South Carolina (-11), West Virginia (-10) and South Dakota (-7).

Trump was always politically weak in Utah for a Republican. But I will be curious to see if other polls continue to find the president in such decline in some of these red states. His disapproval rating in Oklahoma is 42 percent, according to Morning Consult; it’s 40 percent in Kentucky. (He won more than 60 percent of the vote in both states in 2016.)

3. The Deep South is stable in its views on Trump

The 10 states were Trump’s numbers are closest to where they were in January 2017 include Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina.

I expected this, as these are fairly inelastic states overall, meaning that they have very few swing voters. All five states have large black populations that overwhelmingly vote Democratic and white populations that overwhelmingly vote Republican. Take Georgia, for example: Trump started off there with 53 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval, and it looks like the state’s Democrats have united in hating him over the last 17 months (taking him to 44 percent disapproval) but Republicans haven’t moved, so his approval rate is at 51 percent.

Other polling nuggets

Quinnipiac University pollCincinnati Enquirer/Suffolk University pollnew Franklin and Marshall College pollYouGov pollJuly of 2017Public Policy Polling surveysurvey by the Pew Research Centerpoll by Morning ConsultPPP pollSpygateGallup pollYouGov pollFox News pollPew Research Center studybig outlier

Trump approval

The president’s approval (42 percent) and disapproval (52 percent) ratings are about the same as this time last month.

Generic ballot

The Democrats have an 8 percentage-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, up from a 6-point advantage this time last month.

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