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Hillary’s Future (at 538)

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about when we’ll stop tracking Hillary Clinton’s polling performance against John McCain. Some of these strike me as a little … overeager.

Obama is going to be the nominee, guys. You can stop worrying. On the trading markets right now, he is trading at about 95 percent — which is exactly where McCain’s numbers are trading. There are always those asterisk, snowball’s-chance-in-hell scenarios, but they are just as likely for McCain at this point as they are for Obama.

However, I am inclined to give deference to Clinton and continue listing her numbers until she formally ends or suspends her campaign. It isn’t doing anyone any harm, and anything else strikes me as too much of an editorial judgment. If she doesn’t suspend her campaign, then I don’t know what we’ll do — it will probably depend on whether the pollsters continue to include her.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.