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Awards That Best Predict Oscar Voting Favor ‘The King’s Speech’

Since I last wrote about this year’s Academy Award nominees for Best Picture, there has been a significant shift in the conventional wisdom about the probable winner. “The Social Network,” which was once considered as likely as 90 percent certain to win by betting markets, is now given only about a 20 percent chance. “The King’s Speech,” instead, has become the heavy favorite.

It’s tempting to say that the conventional wisdom has gotten ahead of itself. Even if “The King’s Speech” seems to have some momentum, recently having picked up awards from the directors’ and producers’ guilds, “The Social Network” has still won significantly more hardware over the course of the entire season, including the Golden Globes.

Not all awards are created equal, however. And “The King’s Speech” has been winning the awards that matter the most. I have more over at the Carpetbagger blog. Read more.

Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.